- Racing Club de Lens1.642.4%+136
- Draw25.7%+290
- Olympique Lyonnais1.332.0%+213
PNR MODELS · SOCCER · 8 LEAGUES
This week’s match projections
Win, draw and loss chances for every fixture we can forecast, from each team’s attack and defense strength, weighted toward recent results. Each chance comes with its fair price.
- Matches on the board
- 968 leagues, through Friday, October 16
- Match result vs base rate
- 8 of 8leagues where the model beats the base rate, 6,236 matches back-tested
- Favourite won
- 51.2%of 6,236 back-tested matches since August 1, 2024
- Biggest favourite
- 75.8%FC Barcelona vs Getafe CF
Ligue 1
Home side listed first. Goals are the model’s expected goals.
Friday, October 9
Saturday, October 10
- AS Monaco FC2.055.1%−123
- Draw22.8%+338
- Toulouse FC1.222.1%+353
- FC Lorient1.335.6%+181
- Draw28.1%+255
- Paris FC1.336.2%+176
- Lille OSC1.657.2%−134
- Draw26.2%+282
- Le Havre AC0.716.6%+502
- Paris Saint-Germain FC2.567.7%−210
- Draw18.2%+448
- Le Mans FC1.114.1%+611
- Stade Brestois 291.546.7%+114
- Draw27.6%+262
- Angers SCO1.025.6%+290
Sunday, October 11
- ES Troyes AC1.325.1%+298
- Draw23.4%+326
- Olympique de Marseille1.951.5%−106
- OGC Nice1.331.6%+217
- Draw25.6%+291
- RC Strasbourg Alsace1.642.9%+133
- Stade Rennais FC 19011.953.2%−114
- Draw23.2%+330
- AJ Auxerre1.223.6%+324
Friday, October 16
- Le Mans FC1.844.7%+124
- Draw24.1%+315
- Toulouse FC1.531.2%+221
Track record
Walk-forward back-test: before each match date the model is refit on earlier results only. Log loss is lower when chances are sharper and right; the base rate is how often home, draw and away happen.
| League | Matches | Result log loss | Base rate | Favourite won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 803 | 1.0091 | 1.0863 | 49.7% |
| Championship | 1,198 | 1.0521 | 1.0798 | 45.1% |
| LaLiga | 811 | 0.9840 | 1.0618 | 52.4% |
| Serie A | 795 | 0.9867 | 1.0891 | 53.3% |
| Bundesliga | 642 | 1.0027 | 1.0788 | 52.2% |
| Ligue 1 | 650 | 0.9948 | 1.0616 | 53.5% |
| Eredivisie | 669 | 0.9871 | 1.0765 | 52.3% |
| Primeira Liga | 668 | 0.9454 | 1.0821 | 55.4% |
| This season so farall leagues, since July 1, 2026 | 452 | 1.0071 | 1.0889 | 49.8% |
| National teamscompetitive matches since 2024 | 2,009 | 0.8398 | 1.0564 | 61.5% |
| Model said | Games | Happened |
|---|---|---|
| 30-40% | 1,116 | 39.2% vs 37.9% |
| 40-50% | 2,495 | 44.9% vs 44.7% |
| 50-60% | 1,516 | 54.0% vs 54.4% |
| 60-70% | 717 | 69.2% vs 64.1% |
| 70-80% | 305 | 82.0% vs 74.3% |
| 80-90% | 85 | 80.0% vs 83.6% |
Only the match result is shown. Over/under 2.5 goals beat the base rate in five leagues and lost in the Premier League, Championship and Serie A, so totals stay off this page. A team new to its league has no forecast until it plays there. National-team results come without fixtures, so they have a track record here but no board.