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PNR MODELS · NFL · 2026

Week 5–6 projections

A projected score for every game, built from time-weighted offense and defense ratings, beside the betting line nflverse recorded. Plus each game’s likeliest touchdown scorers with fair prices.

Games on the board
15through Thursday, October 15
Anytime TD model
0.441log loss vs 0.480 for the position base rate (lower is better), 5,677 player-games in 2025
Score model vs spread
94–10048.5% when it disagreed with the line by 3+ points, 2024–2025. No edge.
Top TD chance
71.7%Jahmyr Gibbs, DET RB

Game board

The score model trails the market in back-tests (below), so its line is context, never a side to bet. The touchdown model beats its base rate. There is no injury data: check that a player is active before using his number.

Sunday, October 11

  • PHI18.8
  • at JAX23.7
Line
JAX −4.5 · O/U 43.5
Model
JAX by 4.9 · 42.5
Full forecast →

Anytime TD

  • Bhayshul Tuten JAX RB34.4%+191
  • Chris Rodriguez Jr. JAX RB34.2%+192
  • Saquon Barkley PHI RB34.1%+193
  • CIN24.9
  • at MIA22.8
Line
CIN −7 · O/U 41.5
Model
CIN by 2.1 · 47.7
Full forecast →

Anytime TD

  • Ja'Marr Chase CIN WR43.1%+132
  • Tee Higgins CIN WR42.4%+136
  • Chase Brown CIN RB41.3%+142
  • LV16.7
  • at NE24.5
Line
NE −3.5 · O/U 44.5
Model
NE by 7.8 · 41.2
Full forecast →

Anytime TD

  • Rhamondre Stevenson NE RB36.9%+171
  • TreVeyon Henderson NE RB34.2%+192
  • Ashton Jeanty LV RB33.0%+203
  • MIN20.8
  • at NO17.7
Line
MIN −1.5 · O/U 42.5
Model
MIN by 3.1 · 38.5
Full forecast →

Anytime TD

  • Travis Etienne NO RB34.4%+191
  • Chris Olave NO WR28.8%+247
  • Jordan Addison MIN WR28.1%+256
  • CLE19.8
  • at NYJ20.3
Line
NYJ −2.5 · O/U 40.5
Model
NYJ by 0.5 · 40.1
Full forecast →

Anytime TD

  • Harold Fannin Jr. CLE TE30.3%+230
  • Breece Hall NYJ RB29.7%+236
  • Garrett Wilson NYJ WR28.1%+255
  • IND23.9
  • at PIT24.2
Line
PIT −2.5 · O/U 44.5
Model
PIT by 0.3 · 48.1
Full forecast →

Anytime TD

  • Jonathan Taylor IND RB55.2%−123
  • DK Metcalf PIT WR28.3%+253
  • Pat Freiermuth PIT TE24.9%+302
  • HOU23.3
  • at TEN17.0
Line
HOU −6.5 · O/U 39.5
Model
HOU by 6.3 · 40.3
Full forecast →

Anytime TD

  • David Montgomery HOU RB40.6%+147
  • Nico Collins HOU WR37.8%+165
  • Woody Marks HOU RB29.4%+240
  • NYG22.7
  • at WAS24.0
Line
WAS −3 · O/U 43.5
Model
WAS by 1.3 · 46.7
Full forecast →

Anytime TD

  • Cam Skattebo NYG RB34.9%+186
  • Terry McLaurin WAS WR34.5%+190
  • Jacory Croskey-Merritt WAS RB31.6%+217
  • DEN20.5
  • at LAC19.4
Line
DEN −3.5 · O/U 43.5
Model
DEN by 1.1 · 39.9
Full forecast →

Anytime TD

  • RJ Harvey DEN RB35.9%+178
  • Omarion Hampton LAC RB33.4%+199
  • J.K. Dobbins DEN RB30.4%+228
  • DET30.2
  • at ARI25.6
Line
DET −5.5 · O/U 54.5
Model
DET by 4.6 · 55.8
Full forecast →

Anytime TD

  • Jahmyr Gibbs DET RB71.7%−254
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown DET WR52.4%−110
  • Sam LaPorta DET TE40.1%+149
  • CHI23.2
  • at GB22.8
Line
CHI −2.5 · O/U 44.5
Model
CHI by 0.4 · 46.0
Full forecast →

Anytime TD

  • D'Andre Swift CHI RB38.5%+159
  • Christian Watson GB WR33.0%+203
  • Kyle Monangai CHI RB30.3%+229
  • SF21.0
  • at SEA25.6
Line
SEA −2.5 · O/U 46.5
Model
SEA by 4.6 · 46.6
Full forecast →

Anytime TD

  • Christian McCaffrey SF RB54.2%−118
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA WR44.1%+127
  • Mike Evans SF WR37.7%+165
  • BAL25.5
  • at ATL21.5
Line
BAL −3.5 · O/U 46.5
Model
BAL by 4.0 · 47.0
Full forecast →

Anytime TD

  • Derrick Henry BAL RB62.2%−165
  • Bijan Robinson ATL RB45.2%+121
  • Zay Flowers BAL WR32.0%+213

Monday, October 12

  • BUF26.0
  • at LA27.4
Line
LA −2.5 · O/U 53.5
Model
LA by 1.4 · 53.4
Full forecast →

Anytime TD

  • Kyren Williams LA RB59.9%−149
  • James Cook BUF RB50.8%−103
  • Davante Adams LA WR49.5%+102

Thursday, October 15

  • SEA22.8
  • at DEN19.7
Line
Not posted
Model
SEA by 3.1 · 42.5
Full forecast →

Anytime TD

  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA WR41.9%+139
  • Tory Horton SEA WR33.4%+200
  • RJ Harvey DEN RB31.2%+221

Track record

Walk-forward: each game is forecast using only games played before it.

TestSampleModelCompared with
Anytime TD, log loss5,677 player-games, 20250.44120.4800 position base rate
Anytime TD, this season1,287 player-games, 2026 so far0.43260.4755 position base rate
Score margin, average miss570 games, 2024–202510.30 pts9.69 pts, the market line
Side vs spread, disagrees by 3+194 games94–100 (48.5%)52.4% needed at −110
Side vs spread, disagrees by 4.5+106 games53–53 (50.0%)52.4% needed at −110
Anytime touchdown chances5,677 player-games in 2025. The model runs about two to three points high between 10% and 20%, so treat mid-range chances as slightly generous.
0%0%15%15%30%30%45%45%60%60%0-5%: model said 4.2%, happened 7.0% (71 games)5-10%: model said 7.9%, happened 6.4% (874 games)10-15%: model said 12.5%, happened 10.0% (1,229 games)15-20%: model said 17.3%, happened 14.3% (1,050 games)20-25%: model said 22.4%, happened 21.6% (866 games)25-30%: model said 27.4%, happened 26.1% (631 games)30-35%: model said 32.3%, happened 33.4% (377 games)35-40%: model said 37.3%, happened 33.9% (218 games)40-45%: model said 42.1%, happened 37.9% (132 games)45%+: model said 53.9%, happened 54.1% (229 games)
Model saidGamesHappened
0-5%717.0% vs 4.2%
5-10%8746.4% vs 7.9%
10-15%1,22910.0% vs 12.5%
15-20%1,05014.3% vs 17.3%
20-25%86621.6% vs 22.4%
25-30%63126.1% vs 27.4%
30-35%37733.4% vs 32.3%
35-40%21833.9% vs 37.3%
40-45%13237.9% vs 42.1%
45%+22954.1% vs 53.9%