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PNR MODELS · SOCCER · 8 LEAGUES

This week’s match projections

Win, draw and loss chances for every fixture we can forecast, from each team’s attack and defense strength, weighted toward recent results. Each chance comes with its fair price.

Matches on the board
968 leagues, through Friday, October 16
Match result vs base rate
8 of 8leagues where the model beats the base rate, 6,236 matches back-tested
Favourite won
51.2%of 6,236 back-tested matches since August 1, 2024
Biggest favourite
75.8%FC Barcelona vs Getafe CF

Bundesliga

Home side listed first. Goals are the model’s expected goals.

Friday, October 9

  • Borussia Dortmund2.370.4%−238
  • Draw18.5%+442
  • SV Werder Bremen0.811.1%+801
Full forecast →

Saturday, October 10

  • 1. FC Union Berlin1.428.1%+256
  • Draw23.3%+329
  • SV 07 Elversberg1.948.6%+106
Full forecast →
  • 1. FSV Mainz 051.534.7%+188
  • Draw25.1%+299
  • Bayer 04 Leverkusen1.640.2%+149
Full forecast →
  • FC Augsburg1.315.6%+542
  • Draw17.7%+466
  • FC Bayern München2.766.7%−201
Full forecast →
  • RB Leipzig2.358.1%−138
  • Draw20.4%+390
  • Eintracht Frankfurt1.421.5%+365
Full forecast →
  • TSG 1899 Hoffenheim2.260.7%−155
  • Draw20.8%+380
  • Hamburger SV1.218.4%+442
Full forecast →

Sunday, October 11

  • 1. FC Köln1.946.3%+116
  • Draw23.7%+322
  • Borussia Mönchengladbach1.530.0%+233
Full forecast →

Friday, October 16

  • Eintracht Frankfurt2.357.2%−134
  • Draw20.5%+388
  • 1. FC Köln1.422.2%+350
Full forecast →

Track record

Walk-forward back-test: before each match date the model is refit on earlier results only. Log loss is lower when chances are sharper and right; the base rate is how often home, draw and away happen.

LeagueMatchesResult log lossBase rateFavourite won
Premier League8031.00911.086349.7%
Championship1,1981.05211.079845.1%
LaLiga8110.98401.061852.4%
Serie A7950.98671.089153.3%
Bundesliga6421.00271.078852.2%
Ligue 16500.99481.061653.5%
Eredivisie6690.98711.076552.3%
Primeira Liga6680.94541.082155.4%
This season so farall leagues, since July 1, 20264521.00711.088949.8%
National teamscompetitive matches since 20242,0090.83981.056461.5%
When the model makes a side the favouriteAll eight leagues, 6,236 matches. A dot on the dashed line means the chances held up. Between 60% and 80% the favourite won more often than the model said.
30%30%45%45%60%60%75%75%90%90%30-40%: model said 37.9%, happened 39.2% (1,116 games)40-50%: model said 44.7%, happened 44.9% (2,495 games)50-60%: model said 54.4%, happened 54.0% (1,516 games)60-70%: model said 64.1%, happened 69.2% (717 games)70-80%: model said 74.3%, happened 82.0% (305 games)80-90%: model said 83.6%, happened 80.0% (85 games)
Model saidGamesHappened
30-40%1,11639.2% vs 37.9%
40-50%2,49544.9% vs 44.7%
50-60%1,51654.0% vs 54.4%
60-70%71769.2% vs 64.1%
70-80%30582.0% vs 74.3%
80-90%8580.0% vs 83.6%

Only the match result is shown. Over/under 2.5 goals beat the base rate in five leagues and lost in the Premier League, Championship and Serie A, so totals stay off this page. A team new to its league has no forecast until it plays there. National-team results come without fixtures, so they have a track record here but no board.