PNR MODELS · MLB
MLB model track record
Home-run chances for every starting batter and strikeout projections for every starting pitcher, from Retrosheet play-by-play. Our MLB data ends with the 2025 season, so this page shows how both models did across 2025.
- Home-run model
- 0.3516log loss vs 0.3596 for league rate by lineup spot, 43,721 starts in 2025
- Strikeout model
- 1.85 Kaverage miss vs 1.97 for the league baseline, 4,859 starts in 2025
- Batters who homered
- 5,127of 43,721 starts graded
Home runs: chance vs result
Walk-forward over the 2025 regular season, trained on 2022–2024 and every earlier 2025 date. Starters only.
| Model said | Starts | Homered |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5-10% | 10,053 | 7.7% |
| 10-12.5% | 11,055 | 10.9% |
| 12.5-15% | 8,641 | 14.1% |
| 15-17.5% | 5,168 | 16.5% |
| 17.5-20% | 2,412 | 18.2% |
| 20-22.5% | 801 | 23.7% |
| 22.5%+ | 652 | 27.6% |
Every bucket landed in or near its range; the lowest ones run about a point high. Adding a recent hot-streak term made the model no better, so streaks carry no extra weight.
Strikeouts: over the line
4,859 starts in 2025. Lower log loss is better.
| Line | Model | Baseline | Went over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.5 | 0.5987 | 0.6375 | 67.5% |
| 4.5 | 0.6455 | 0.6948 | 51.7% |
| 5.5 | 0.6034 | 0.6536 | 36.0% |
| 6.5 | 0.4932 | 0.5390 | 23.0% |
| 7.5 | 0.3712 | 0.4096 | 14.2% |