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PNR MODELS · SOCCER · 8 LEAGUES

This week’s match projections

Win, draw and loss chances for every fixture we can forecast, from each team’s attack and defense strength, weighted toward recent results. Each chance comes with its fair price.

Matches on the board
968 leagues, through Friday, October 16
Match result vs base rate
8 of 8leagues where the model beats the base rate, 6,236 matches back-tested
Favourite won
51.2%of 6,236 back-tested matches since August 1, 2024
Biggest favourite
75.8%FC Barcelona vs Getafe CF

Championship

Home side listed first. Goals are the model’s expected goals.

Friday, October 9

  • West Ham United FC2.464.4%−181
  • Draw19.6%+411
  • Queens Park Rangers FC1.216.0%+524
Full forecast →

Saturday, October 10

  • Blackburn Rovers FC1.444.8%+123
  • Draw28.9%+246
  • Cardiff City FC1.026.2%+281
Full forecast →
  • Bolton Wanderers FC1.541.5%+141
  • Draw27.0%+270
  • Stoke City FC1.331.5%+217
Full forecast →
  • Charlton Athletic FC1.134.5%+190
  • Draw31.1%+221
  • Bristol City FC1.134.3%+191
Full forecast →
  • Middlesbrough FC1.744.1%+127
  • Draw25.4%+294
  • Wolverhampton Wanderers FC1.430.5%+228
Full forecast →
  • Preston North End FC1.229.8%+235
  • Draw28.2%+255
  • Millwall FC1.442.0%+138
Full forecast →
  • Sheffield United FC1.342.7%+134
  • Draw30.5%+228
  • Lincoln City FC1.026.8%+273
Full forecast →
  • Swansea City AFC1.645.3%+121
  • Draw26.3%+280
  • Norwich City FC1.328.3%+253
Full forecast →
  • West Bromwich Albion FC1.238.7%+158
  • Draw31.1%+221
  • Birmingham City FC1.030.1%+232
Full forecast →

Sunday, October 11

Tuesday, October 13

  • Birmingham City FC1.752.1%−109
  • Draw26.6%+277
  • Preston North End FC1.021.3%+370
Full forecast →
  • Bristol City FC1.442.7%+134
  • Draw29.5%+239
  • Blackburn Rovers FC1.027.8%+260
Full forecast →
  • Wolverhampton Wanderers FC2.361.1%−157
  • Draw20.7%+384
  • Bolton Wanderers FC1.218.2%+448
Full forecast →
  • Wrexham AFC1.441.3%+142
  • Draw29.2%+242
  • West Bromwich Albion FC1.129.5%+239
Full forecast →

Wednesday, October 14

  • Lincoln City FC1.228.3%+253
  • Draw27.0%+271
  • West Ham United FC1.644.7%+124
Full forecast →
  • Portsmouth FC1.336.0%+178
  • Draw28.1%+256
  • Sheffield United FC1.336.0%+178
Full forecast →
  • Queens Park Rangers FC1.441.5%+141
  • Draw28.1%+256
  • Derby County FC1.230.5%+228
Full forecast →

Friday, October 16

  • Burnley FC1.533.2%+201
  • Draw25.7%+288
  • Wolverhampton Wanderers FC1.641.1%+143
Full forecast →

Track record

Walk-forward back-test: before each match date the model is refit on earlier results only. Log loss is lower when chances are sharper and right; the base rate is how often home, draw and away happen.

LeagueMatchesResult log lossBase rateFavourite won
Premier League8031.00911.086349.7%
Championship1,1981.05211.079845.1%
LaLiga8110.98401.061852.4%
Serie A7950.98671.089153.3%
Bundesliga6421.00271.078852.2%
Ligue 16500.99481.061653.5%
Eredivisie6690.98711.076552.3%
Primeira Liga6680.94541.082155.4%
This season so farall leagues, since July 1, 20264521.00711.088949.8%
National teamscompetitive matches since 20242,0090.83981.056461.5%
When the model makes a side the favouriteAll eight leagues, 6,236 matches. A dot on the dashed line means the chances held up. Between 60% and 80% the favourite won more often than the model said.
30%30%45%45%60%60%75%75%90%90%30-40%: model said 37.9%, happened 39.2% (1,116 games)40-50%: model said 44.7%, happened 44.9% (2,495 games)50-60%: model said 54.4%, happened 54.0% (1,516 games)60-70%: model said 64.1%, happened 69.2% (717 games)70-80%: model said 74.3%, happened 82.0% (305 games)80-90%: model said 83.6%, happened 80.0% (85 games)
Model saidGamesHappened
30-40%1,11639.2% vs 37.9%
40-50%2,49544.9% vs 44.7%
50-60%1,51654.0% vs 54.4%
60-70%71769.2% vs 64.1%
70-80%30582.0% vs 74.3%
80-90%8580.0% vs 83.6%

Only the match result is shown. Over/under 2.5 goals beat the base rate in five leagues and lost in the Premier League, Championship and Serie A, so totals stay off this page. A team new to its league has no forecast until it plays there. National-team results come without fixtures, so they have a track record here but no board.