- Arsenal FC1.656.0%−127
- Draw27.0%+270
- Leeds United FC0.817.0%+490
PNR MODELS · SOCCER · 8 LEAGUES
This week’s match projections
Win, draw and loss chances for every fixture we can forecast, from each team’s attack and defense strength, weighted toward recent results. Each chance comes with its fair price.
- Matches on the board
- 968 leagues, through Friday, October 16
- Match result vs base rate
- 8 of 8leagues where the model beats the base rate, 6,236 matches back-tested
- Favourite won
- 51.2%of 6,236 back-tested matches since August 1, 2024
- Biggest favourite
- 75.8%FC Barcelona vs Getafe CF
Premier League
Home side listed first. Goals are the model’s expected goals.
Saturday, October 10
- Aston Villa FC1.537.2%+169
- Draw27.2%+268
- Brentford FC1.435.6%+181
- Chelsea FC1.741.5%+141
- Draw25.8%+288
- AFC Bournemouth1.532.7%+206
- Ipswich Town FC1.433.6%+198
- Draw27.3%+266
- Fulham FC1.539.1%+156
- Manchester United FC2.057.9%−138
- Draw23.5%+326
- Tottenham Hotspur FC1.118.6%+438
- Sunderland AFC1.228.0%+257
- Draw27.0%+271
- Brighton & Hove Albion FC1.645.0%+122
Sunday, October 11
- Crystal Palace FC1.233.4%+200
- Draw29.4%+240
- Nottingham Forest FC1.337.2%+169
- Hull City AFC1.241.4%+141
- Draw31.9%+213
- Everton FC0.926.7%+275
- Liverpool FC1.431.3%+220
- Draw26.3%+280
- Manchester City FC1.642.4%+136
Monday, October 12
- Coventry City FC1.125.1%+299
- Draw27.3%+267
- Newcastle United FC1.647.7%+110
Track record
Walk-forward back-test: before each match date the model is refit on earlier results only. Log loss is lower when chances are sharper and right; the base rate is how often home, draw and away happen.
| League | Matches | Result log loss | Base rate | Favourite won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 803 | 1.0091 | 1.0863 | 49.7% |
| Championship | 1,198 | 1.0521 | 1.0798 | 45.1% |
| LaLiga | 811 | 0.9840 | 1.0618 | 52.4% |
| Serie A | 795 | 0.9867 | 1.0891 | 53.3% |
| Bundesliga | 642 | 1.0027 | 1.0788 | 52.2% |
| Ligue 1 | 650 | 0.9948 | 1.0616 | 53.5% |
| Eredivisie | 669 | 0.9871 | 1.0765 | 52.3% |
| Primeira Liga | 668 | 0.9454 | 1.0821 | 55.4% |
| This season so farall leagues, since July 1, 2026 | 452 | 1.0071 | 1.0889 | 49.8% |
| National teamscompetitive matches since 2024 | 2,009 | 0.8398 | 1.0564 | 61.5% |
| Model said | Games | Happened |
|---|---|---|
| 30-40% | 1,116 | 39.2% vs 37.9% |
| 40-50% | 2,495 | 44.9% vs 44.7% |
| 50-60% | 1,516 | 54.0% vs 54.4% |
| 60-70% | 717 | 69.2% vs 64.1% |
| 70-80% | 305 | 82.0% vs 74.3% |
| 80-90% | 85 | 80.0% vs 83.6% |
Only the match result is shown. Over/under 2.5 goals beat the base rate in five leagues and lost in the Premier League, Championship and Serie A, so totals stay off this page. A team new to its league has no forecast until it plays there. National-team results come without fixtures, so they have a track record here but no board.