21+ ONLY

Independent analysis. Always play responsibly.

Get help
PnROLL.PARLAY N’ ROLLFollow PNR
← All forecasts

PNR MODELS · NFL · 2026

SEA at DEN

Thursday, October 15

Projected score

SEA22.8
DEN19.7
Model margin
SEA by 3.1Projected final
Model total
42.5Not posted
Line
Not postedPosted spread

Anytime TD

Chance each player scores, with the price that would make it fair.

  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA WR42%+139
  • Tory Horton SEA WR33%+200
  • RJ Harvey DEN RB31%+221

How this model has done

48.5% when it disagreed with the line by 3+ points, 2024–2025. No edge.

Score model vs spread
94–100194 games
Anytime TD model
0.441log loss vs 0.480 for the position base rate (lower is better), 5,677 player-games in 2025
Anytime touchdown chances5,677 player-games in 2025. The model runs about two to three points high between 10% and 20%, so treat mid-range chances as slightly generous.
0%0%15%15%30%30%45%45%60%60%0-5%: model said 4.2%, happened 7.0% (71 games)5-10%: model said 7.9%, happened 6.4% (874 games)10-15%: model said 12.5%, happened 10.0% (1,229 games)15-20%: model said 17.3%, happened 14.3% (1,050 games)20-25%: model said 22.4%, happened 21.6% (866 games)25-30%: model said 27.4%, happened 26.1% (631 games)30-35%: model said 32.3%, happened 33.4% (377 games)35-40%: model said 37.3%, happened 33.9% (218 games)40-45%: model said 42.1%, happened 37.9% (132 games)45%+: model said 53.9%, happened 54.1% (229 games)
Model saidGamesHappened
0-5%717.0% vs 4.2%
5-10%8746.4% vs 7.9%
10-15%1,22910.0% vs 12.5%
15-20%1,05014.3% vs 17.3%
20-25%86621.6% vs 22.4%
25-30%63126.1% vs 27.4%
30-35%37733.4% vs 32.3%
35-40%21833.9% vs 37.3%
40-45%13237.9% vs 42.1%
45%+22954.1% vs 53.9%