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PNR MODELS · NFL · 2026

MIN at NO

Sunday, October 11

Projected score

MIN20.8
NO17.7
Model margin
MIN by 3.1Projected final
Model total
38.5Posted total 42.5
Line
MIN −1.5Posted spread

Anytime TD

Chance each player scores, with the price that would make it fair.

  • Travis Etienne NO RB34%+191
  • Chris Olave NO WR29%+247
  • Jordan Addison MIN WR28%+256

How this model has done

48.5% when it disagreed with the line by 3+ points, 2024–2025. No edge.

Score model vs spread
94–100194 games
Anytime TD model
0.441log loss vs 0.480 for the position base rate (lower is better), 5,677 player-games in 2025
Anytime touchdown chances5,677 player-games in 2025. The model runs about two to three points high between 10% and 20%, so treat mid-range chances as slightly generous.
0%0%15%15%30%30%45%45%60%60%0-5%: model said 4.2%, happened 7.0% (71 games)5-10%: model said 7.9%, happened 6.4% (874 games)10-15%: model said 12.5%, happened 10.0% (1,229 games)15-20%: model said 17.3%, happened 14.3% (1,050 games)20-25%: model said 22.4%, happened 21.6% (866 games)25-30%: model said 27.4%, happened 26.1% (631 games)30-35%: model said 32.3%, happened 33.4% (377 games)35-40%: model said 37.3%, happened 33.9% (218 games)40-45%: model said 42.1%, happened 37.9% (132 games)45%+: model said 53.9%, happened 54.1% (229 games)
Model saidGamesHappened
0-5%717.0% vs 4.2%
5-10%8746.4% vs 7.9%
10-15%1,22910.0% vs 12.5%
15-20%1,05014.3% vs 17.3%
20-25%86621.6% vs 22.4%
25-30%63126.1% vs 27.4%
30-35%37733.4% vs 32.3%
35-40%21833.9% vs 37.3%
40-45%13237.9% vs 42.1%
45%+22954.1% vs 53.9%