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Primeira Liga · Model forecast

FC Famalicão vs FC Alverca

Monday, October 12

Chance of each result

  • FC Famalicão52%Fair price −110
  • Draw26%Fair price +290
  • FC Alverca22%Fair price +357
Most likely
52%FC Famalicão to win
Expected goals
1.5–0.8FC Famalicão · FC Alverca
Total goals
2.3Expected, both teams

How this model has done

Primeira Liga · 668 games

Result log loss
0.9454Base rate 1.0821
Favourite won
55.4%668 games
Over 2.5 goals
67.8%Base rate 69.4%
When the model makes a side the favouriteAll eight leagues, 6,236 matches. A dot on the dashed line means the chances held up. Between 60% and 80% the favourite won more often than the model said.
30%30%45%45%60%60%75%75%90%90%30-40%: model said 37.9%, happened 39.2% (1,116 games)40-50%: model said 44.7%, happened 44.9% (2,495 games)50-60%: model said 54.4%, happened 54.0% (1,516 games)60-70%: model said 64.1%, happened 69.2% (717 games)70-80%: model said 74.3%, happened 82.0% (305 games)80-90%: model said 83.6%, happened 80.0% (85 games)
Model saidGamesHappened
30-40%1,11639.2% vs 37.9%
40-50%2,49544.9% vs 44.7%
50-60%1,51654.0% vs 54.4%
60-70%71769.2% vs 64.1%
70-80%30582.0% vs 74.3%
80-90%8580.0% vs 83.6%

Only the match result is shown. Over/under 2.5 goals beat the base rate in five leagues and lost in the Premier League, Championship and Serie A, so totals stay off this page. A team new to its league has no forecast until it plays there. National-team results come without fixtures, so they have a track record here but no board.